Identifying the nature, pace and scale of change is critical in foresight, but it is easy to overlook discontinuities and the need for ourselves and our institutions to change quickly too.
An article in Foreign Affairs suggests a way to make better predictions. A more productive approach is to pay more attention to improving mental models and understanding why things are changing (or aren’t).
Wellington, 2041. Most political imagery is trite and self-serving. But sometimes one captures the moment, galvanizes not just a party but the populace, and even endures. So it was with the then opposition leader Jo Smith’s 2029 “Pohutukawa speech.”
Lenin noted that “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Here are some simple tools to help you think like a futurist and better navigate revolutionary changes. A worked example to follow.
Another pandemic symptom is that everyone has opinions. But everything seems uncertain, so how can you reduce that? I look at a couple of approaches that help weed out some uncertainty so you can get to useful insights and actions.
The end of year is full of predictions, and thoughts of days at the beach. But foresight is more than just wave spotting, it needs to understand the metaphorical currents and tides shaping the world, and the large transitions underway.
Elephants can be an important symbol to illustrate concepts for how to think about the future. I’ve found a new one to add to the metaphorical menagerie.
NZ’s Productivity Commission has developed draft scenarios looking at the impact of technological change on the future of work. They want to know if they are useful for considering the future labour market effects of technological change. My initial response is no.
