See Future Salience for Robert’s latest articles.
Toward more optimistic futures
Dystopian futures tend to dominate media and our psyche these days. Some say that this is because were are not imaginative enough. Others suggest that the problem is we are being too imaginative, indulging in wishful thinking poorly connected to reality that weakens more positive futures. Both views are often right. Futures methods provide the means to be more creative and realistic, but lack the power of dystopia. The problem may lie more with how we frame and undertake futures activities. Here’s how we can help change that.
Aotearoa's narrow narrative
To the limited extent that Aotearoa NZ has considered the future, it hasn’t taken a very imaginative approach. The dominant narrative is of an agricultural nation, just more sustainable and regenerative. To develop and give more salience to other future narratives were need to use futures thinking methods to explore other worldviews.
Transforming transport, and other, planning processes
Thinking over the longer term
Illustrating complexity in environmental scans
Environmental scanning is an essential futures practice. The purpose of scanning is to systematically identify trends, developments, and points of inertia that may influence an organisation’s (or society’s) future operating environment. Such scans are usually long, and good visual summaries are hard to find. In this post I look at one way that can help illustrate some key insights from the environmental scan I recently did for NZ Search & Rescue.
Climate-induced changes in strategies
Don't plan on orderly transitions
Goldilocks and the three futures
Thinking about the future often adopts a relatively short-term timeframe. We should be more courageous and explore longer timeframes, especially the next 100 years. This helps us break from our assumptions, consider what systemic changes may be desirable, and how they may play out beyond the short-term. Goldilocks and the three bears provides a useful metaphorical prompt for exploring different timeframes.
Significant declarations
Types of futures reports
Futures snacks
Looking beyond regenerative agriculture
Technology listicles, deep tech, and social systems
Trends and developments - February 2021
Is science becoming artificially intelligent?
Improve mental models not metaphorical balls
Five things we know about COVID-19, and five we don’t
As part of my coronavirus research tracking work for New Zealand’s Science Media Centre I’ve summarised some of the key things we have learnt, and what we still don’t know about the virus and the illness it causes.
Learning from the techno-hype
We can too quickly accept or dismiss reports of technological “breakthroughs” or developments. It is important to consider if they are just hype as well as what else needs to happen before they can become everyday realities. Future thinkers also need to contemplate what the particular developments indicate about broader trends or mindsets that are driving, or inhibiting, change.